The Future
is Now: Climate Change Detection, Attribution and
Adaptation in Alaska
Introduction
Alaska’s climate has warmed about 4 degrees F
since the 1950’s and 7 degrees F in the interior
during winter. The state experienced a 30% average increase
in precipitation between 1968 and 1990. The growing season
has lengthened by two weeks. Sea ice has retreated by 14%
since 1978 and thinned by 60% since the 1960s with
widespread effects on marine ecosystems, coastal climate,
and human settlements. Permafrost melting has caused
erosion, landslides and damaged infrastructure in central
and southern Alaska. Recent warming has been accompanied by
“unprecedented increases in forest disturbances,
including insect attacks. A sustained infestation of spruce
bark beetles, which in the past have been limited by cold,
has caused widespread tree deaths over 2.3 million acres on
the Kenai Peninsula since 1992, the largest loss to insects
ever recorded in North America” (US Global Change
Research Program, National Assessment, 2001).
Research Questions
Have decision-makers at the individual, group and
institutional levels detected these changes? Do they
attribute them to global climate change? How are they
incorporating climate change into their current
decision-making? What mitigation and adaptation measures
are these decision-makers taking or considering to respond
to these locally and regionally-specific impacts and how
are they making these decisions?
Methodology
Phase I: Interviews with key stakeholders (summer, 2005)
Phase II: Representative state-wide survey (May - June,
2006)
Phase III: Northwest Alaska Regional Climate Summit (May,
2006)
Phase IV: Media content analysis (ongoing)
Results
Leiserowitz, A. (2006) Alaskan opinions on global warming.
Report No. 06-10, Eugene, OR: Decision Research.
Gregory, R., Failing, L., and Leiserowitz, A. (2006)
Climate change impacts, vulnerabilities,
and adaptation in Northwest Alaska. Report No.
06-11, Eugene, OR: Decision Research.